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How it works

Consumption forecasts are produced and submitted every day without manual intervention

From data collection to the last intraday revision, the process runs every day on a fixed schedule, including weekends and public holidays. Trading rules in the intraday market (GİP) are set by the supplier; Wattica produces the forecasts and revisions.

A day in operation

From the morning before delivery to the next day's report

All times are Turkey time (UTC+3).

  1. Day before delivery
    Morning

    Data is updated

    OSOS, OSB, EPİAŞ and weather data is collected and checked. Gaps are filled.

  2. Day before delivery
    Before day-ahead gate closure

    Day-ahead forecast is sent

    The next day's meter-level forecast is produced; Imbalance Optimisation is applied if it is in use. The forecast is sent to you, to your platform or to EPİAŞ.

  3. Day before delivery
    18:00

    Intraday market opens

    The hourly revision cycle starts for each contract.

  4. Delivery day
    Until the contract closes

    Revisions continue

    Each contract is revised until it closes. For example, the 15:00 contract closes at 14:00; by default the last revision is sent around 13:30. The timing can be adjusted.

  5. Day after delivery
    Report

    Results are reported

    Actual consumption, imbalance and cost are reported; dashboards are updated.

Technology

Meter-level models, retrained on every run

Meter-level modelling

Each meter is modelled separately, with its own consumption behaviour. The portfolio forecast is the sum of the meter forecasts.

Multiple models

Several machine learning approaches are evaluated for each meter, and the one with the best result is used.

Retrained on every run

Each time the forecasting engine runs, the models are retrained with the latest data. Their performance is monitored continuously.

Measurement and transparency

Results are reported against the supplier's own forecast

Our live operation results →

  • In the backtest: side by side with your forecast

    Wattica forecasts are compared with the forecasts you used for the same period. The difference is reported both in accuracy and in imbalance cost in TL.

  • In live operation: compared with a reference forecast

    Dashboards show the Wattica forecast next to a reference forecast. If the supplier shares its own forecasting method (for example, a similar-day, similar-hour approach), the reference is calculated with that method; otherwise a default reference based on methods commonly used in the industry is applied.

  • Your actual imbalance before DSG netting

    You also see your imbalance cost before netting within the balance responsible group (DSG). This shows today what the cost will be once the DSG effect is reduced.

Delivery and integration

Forecasts are delivered automatically

The delivery channel depends on the systems the supplier uses; more than one can be used at the same time.

  • EPİAŞ

    The day-ahead forecast is submitted to EPİAŞ automatically, in line with the submission schedule.

  • Trading platforms

    Turning intraday revisions into trades requires an algorithmic trading platform (such as SmartPulse, Senkron or VTC). Wattica sends forecasts to these platforms every hour; the platform service is provided separately.

  • Email reports

    Daily forecast and OSOS consumption reports are sent as Excel or CSV files.

  • Dashboard

    Forecast, actual consumption and imbalance are tracked on the web.

Dashboards

Forecast performance is updated every day

Forecast consumption, actual consumption, imbalance volume and cost are shown on the same screen. Performance is tracked monthly across the portfolio and daily for OSOS meters. The dashboards run on Apache Superset; users can build their own dashboards and upload their own imbalance calculations to analyse them alongside Wattica data. The screenshots below show the Turkish interface.

Weekly performance screen: MAPE, MAE and R² for the Wattica forecast and the supplier's forecast
Weekly performance · Wattica and the supplier's own forecast: MAPE, MAE and R²
Daily comparison of total portfolio consumption with the Wattica forecast and the supplier's forecast
Total portfolio consumption, Wattica forecast and the supplier's own forecast · daily
Hourly forecast, consumption and imbalance for a single meter
Meter-level view · hourly forecast, consumption and imbalance for a single meter

Getting started

A backtest on your own data before you buy

The first four steps are free and carry no purchase commitment.

  1. 1

    Non-disclosure agreement

    We sign a mutual non-disclosure agreement (NDA) before we see your data.

  2. 2

    Data access

    Through a read-only EPİAŞ user account that you set up for us, we access your meter list and consumption history. No installation is needed on your side.

  3. 3

    Backtest

    We simulate a past period day by day under real operating conditions. This takes about a week once access is in place.

  4. 4

    Comparison

    We go through a report with you that compares the results with your current forecast on accuracy and imbalance cost.

  5. 5

    Agreement

    If the results make sense for you, we prepare a proposal based on your portfolio size and the modules you choose.

  6. 6

    Go-live

    OSOS access is set up and the system is connected to your portfolio. The first month, during integration, is free.

What we need from you

For the backtest
A read-only user account set up for Wattica in EPİAŞ's EPYS system. The required permissions are sent separately.
For go-live
OSOS user credentials. For distribution companies with IP restrictions, the Wattica server IP needs to be allowlisted or a separate user account created.
For OSB data
Access to the relevant OSB portals.

Terms

Turkish market terms used on this site

EPİAŞ
Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST), the operator of Turkey's electricity markets and of imbalance settlement.
EPYS
EPİAŞ's market management system, where users and their permissions are defined.
GÖP
The day-ahead market.
GİP
The intraday market. Hourly contracts close one hour before delivery.
DSG
Balance responsible group. Members net part of their imbalances against each other before settlement.
System direction
Whether the system is in surplus (long) or in deficit (short) in a given hour. It determines how imbalances are priced.
OSOS
The automated meter reading system run by the distribution companies. It provides hourly consumption data.
OSB
Organised industrial zone. Some OSBs operate their own distribution network and meter data portal.
KGÜP and EAK
The finalised day-ahead generation schedule and the available capacity, submitted to EPİAŞ for generation facilities.

Frequently asked questions

Questions suppliers ask most often

We produce our forecasts in-house. How does the switch work?

Forecast production moves entirely to us; your team does not need to learn new software or build models. A read-only EPİAŞ user account is enough for the backtest, which takes about a week once access is in place. Go-live also requires OSOS access: OSOS credentials are shared or a separate user account is created for Wattica. Reports can be sent in the format you are used to.

Can we keep using our own forecast?

Yes. MetaCast Forecast Optimisation corrects the forecast you produce by learning from its past errors. You can also follow both forecasts side by side on the dashboards.

What about meters with no OSOS data, or with incomplete data?

The whole portfolio is forecast. Meters without OSOS data are forecast with statistical models.

What happens when our portfolio changes?

The current meter list is pulled from EPİAŞ automatically every month. Meters joining or leaving the portfolio are picked up by the system automatically.

Does Wattica trade in the intraday market?

No. Wattica produces the forecasts and revisions; intraday trades are executed through the algorithmic trading platform the supplier uses. If you do not have a platform, we can help with selection and setup.

How is pricing set?

We prepare a proposal based on your portfolio size and the modules you choose. The backtest and comparison are free, and there is no charge for the first month after go-live.

Request a backtest for your portfolio

In the first meeting we talk through your portfolio and the backtest process.

Request a meeting